MODEL VERDICT
Shell plc (SHEL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $88.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $89.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $87.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $89.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $92.21 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $108.69 | +22.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $134.01 | +50.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $127.68 | +43.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $116.19 | +30.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $80.83 | -9.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $131.47 | +47.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $98.54 | +10.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $106.63 | +19.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $137.30 | +54.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $116.19 | +30.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $97.90 | +10.0% | 100% | 82 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $69 | $81 | $94 | $106 | $119 |
| Conservative (7%) | $71 | $83 | $96 | $109 | $122 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $73 | $86 | $99 | $113 | $126 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $75 | $89 | $102 | $116 | $130 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.78 | 11.87 | 4.99 | 15.12 | 3.55 |
| EV/EBIT | 7.39 | 6.99 | 3.63 | 10.57 | 2.44 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.10 | 4.92 | 2.98 | 7.01 | 1.51 |
| P/FCF | 7.75 | 7.17 | 4.61 | 12.46 | 2.69 |
| P/FFO | 9.98 | 5.27 | 3.26 | 41.49 | 13.92 |
| P/TBV | 1.28 | 1.29 | 1.01 | 1.47 | 0.17 |
| P/AFFO | 9.28 | 9.44 | 5.01 | 13.31 | 3.04 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.10 | 1.11 | 0.86 | 1.26 | 0.15 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.55 | 0.82 | 0.08 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates SHEL's fair value at $97.90 vs the current price of $88.98, implying +10.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $97.90 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $90.48 (P10) to $112.02 (P90), with a median of $101.15.
SHEL's current P/E of 14.8x compares to the industry median of 21.2x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -30.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.8x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
12 analysts cover SHEL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $94.67 (range: $89.00 — $101.00), implying +6.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: SHEL trades at the 2860th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (10.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SHEL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (9.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 210.0% to approximately $87. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.