MODEL VERDICT
Shell plc (SHEL) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $83.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $79.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $78.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $77.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $70.83 | Below threshold | +9.8% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 16 analyst estimates | $79.86 | -4.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 16 industry peers | $95.01 | +13.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 15 industry peers | $96.33 | +15.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 15 industry peers | $99.88 | +19.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 16 industry peers | $82.36 | -1.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 16 industry peers | $86.14 | +3.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 16 industry peers | $116.81 | +39.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 16 industry peers | $102.88 | +23.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 16 industry peers | $98.04 | +17.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 16 industry peers | $103.85 | +24.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $76.54 | -8.3% | 100% | 82 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $63 | $75 | $88 | $100 | $113 |
| Conservative (7%) | $64 | $77 | $90 | $103 | $115 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $66 | $79 | $93 | $106 | $119 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $68 | $82 | $96 | $109 | $123 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.78 | 11.87 | 4.99 | 15.12 | 3.55 |
| EV/EBIT | 7.39 | 6.99 | 3.63 | 10.57 | 2.44 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.85 | 4.92 | 2.98 | 6.61 | 1.23 |
| P/FCF | 7.75 | 7.17 | 4.61 | 12.46 | 2.69 |
| P/FFO | 9.98 | 5.27 | 3.26 | 41.49 | 13.92 |
| P/TBV | 1.28 | 1.29 | 1.01 | 1.47 | 0.17 |
| P/AFFO | 9.28 | 9.44 | 5.01 | 13.31 | 3.04 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.10 | 1.11 | 0.86 | 1.26 | 0.15 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.55 | 0.82 | 0.08 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates SHEL's fair value at $76.54 vs the current price of $83.51, implying -8.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $76.54 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $72.86 (P10) to $91.93 (P90), with a median of $82.29.
SHEL's current P/E of 13.9x compares to the industry median of 16.0x (15 peers in the group). This represents a -13.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.8x over 6 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
12 analysts cover SHEL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $85.67 (range: $77.00 — $91.00), implying +2.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: SHEL trades at the 2670th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (10.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SHEL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (9.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 460.0% to approximately $87. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.