MODEL VERDICT
Signet Jewelers Limited (SIG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.52 | $87.33 | CURRENT | — |
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.52 | $85.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.52 | $88.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $94.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $92.69 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $178.16 | +104.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $178.16 | +104.0% | 100% | 39 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.64 | 10.86 | 5.38 | 19.48 | 7.26 |
| EV/EBIT | 9.57 | 7.21 | 4.79 | 20.72 | 6.37 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.89 | 6.03 | 4.05 | 16.34 | 5.51 |
| P/FCF | 6.43 | 6.07 | 3.37 | 10.34 | 3.21 |
| P/FFO | 11.82 | 8.11 | 4.48 | 28.14 | 9.50 |
| P/TBV | 9.81 | 3.20 | 1.06 | 49.69 | 17.64 |
| P/AFFO | 26.36 | 12.36 | 5.15 | 64.81 | 27.53 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.90 | 1.95 | 0.77 | 2.72 | 0.70 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.60 | 0.58 | 0.23 | 0.87 | 0.22 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 2 valuation metrics, the model estimates SIG's fair value at $178.16 vs the current price of $87.33, implying +104.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 39/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $178.16 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%).
SIG's current P/E of N/Ax compares to the industry median of 23.1x (4 peers in the group). This represents a N/A discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.6x over 4 years. Signal: N/A.
30 analysts cover SIG with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $110.00 (range: $90.00 — $150.00), implying +26.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (17), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 39/100, based on: data completeness (0), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows weak agreement across inputs — interpret with caution.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SIG.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.