MODEL VERDICT
Grupo Simec, S.A.B. de C.V. (SIM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $28.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $30.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $31.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $30.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $30.60 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $28.45 | +1.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $544.99 | +1845.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $236.93 | +745.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $648.49 | +2215.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $319.29 | +1039.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $122.69 | +338.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $236.42 | +744.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $231.81 | +727.6% | 100% | 59 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 47× | 52× | 57× (Current) | 62× | 67× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $414 | $458 | $502 | $546 | $590 |
| Conservative (5%) | $426 | $472 | $517 | $562 | $608 |
| Base Case (-13.8%) | $350 | $387 | $425 | $462 | $499 |
| Bull Case (-19%) | $331 | $366 | $401 | $436 | $471 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 1.11 | 0.68 | 0.39 | 3.43 | 1.16 |
| EV/EBIT | 0.42 | 0.32 | 0.25 | 0.70 | 0.24 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.27 | 0.24 | 0.23 | 0.34 | 0.06 |
| P/FCF | 1.25 | 0.74 | 0.57 | 2.92 | 0.98 |
| P/FFO | 0.78 | 0.52 | 0.39 | 2.01 | 0.62 |
| P/TBV | 0.68 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 2.15 | 0.81 |
| P/AFFO | 0.72 | 0.60 | 0.44 | 1.39 | 0.39 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.64 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 2.03 | 0.76 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.17 | 0.05 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates SIM's fair value at $231.81 vs the current price of $28.01, implying +727.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 59/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $231.81 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $196.93 (P10) to $240.41 (P90), with a median of $218.25.
SIM's current P/E of 56.6x compares to the industry median of 27.4x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +106.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 1.1x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
1 analysts cover SIM with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 59/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: SIM trades at the 8180th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (1.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SIM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (19.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2920.0% to approximately $36. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.