Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (SIRI)
Valuation Overview•Is Sirius XM Holdings Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount across both intrinsic cash flow and relative peer multiples, indicating a strong margin of safety.
Moderate quality score of 47/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant solvency concerns.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral alongside robust expected earnings growth. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
SIRI demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. However, this is severely offset by a highly leveraged balance sheet (Debt/EBITDA > 4.0x) and elevated financial risk.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-1.7% 3Y CAGR) however, earnings have severely contracted over the same period. The company maintains healthy operational efficiency with a 18.0% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.1B | -1.6% | -1.7% | +1.3% | +6.5% | |
| EBITDA | $621.0M | — | -7.7% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $245.0M | +148.3% | -12.8% | — | +4.7% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.72 | +145.6% | -10.1% | +49.6% | +9.6% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $166.0M | +22.9% | -7.0% | -5.7% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 45.4% | 48.1% | 49.0% | 50.1% |
| Operating Margin | 18.0% | 7.2% | 13.5% | 18.8% |
| Net Margin | 9.9% | 1.4% | 6.6% | 9.3% |
| FCF Margin | 15.8% | 13.1% | 15.0% | 20.3% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.70 | $0.72 | +2.9% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.77 | $0.84 | +9.1% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.78 | $0.84 | +7.1% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.79 | $0.57 | -27.8% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.70 | $0.59 | -15.7% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.64 | $0.83 | +29.7% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.75 | $-0.84 | -212.0% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.80 | $0.80 | +0.0% |
Total return is +35.5% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +10.5%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +39.3% | +30.0% | — |
| 1Y | +35.5% | +10.5% | +5.0% |
| 3YCAGR | -5.9% | -25.6% | +8.5% |
| 5YCAGR | -10.9% | -23.7% | +11.8% |
| 10YCAGR | -0.5% | -14.0% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (SIRI) valuation, health, and returns.
Sirius XM Holdings Inc. is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +150.4% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $70.19)
Sirius XM Holdings Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $70.19 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $97.30 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $27.80 (implying -0.8% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Sirius XM Holdings Inc. displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 47/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 0.8 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 5.2%.
Sirius XM Holdings Inc. pays a 3.6% dividend yield, covered by a 45% payout ratio with 9 years of growth, supplemented by a 1.4% buyback yield.
Sirius XM Holdings Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Stable. The company achieved -1.6% 1Y revenue growth and +145.6% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -1.7%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 32 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 58% of recent quarters with a 3-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a -0.8% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Sirius XM Holdings Inc. include: -18.7% 1-year max drawdown, elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.57x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.