Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$21.96
→
Intrinsic$96.32
+339%
$56.99$96.32$170.95
Market implies 2% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests SIRI could have 339% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $22, the market prices in only 2% growth — below historical 25%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $57 → Bull $171. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $125 | $137 | $150 | $164 |
| 10% | $79 | $87 | $96 | $106 |
| 12% | $54 | $60 | $67 | $74 |
| 14% | $38 | $43 | $48 | $53 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($171) offers 678% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
- Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
- Market-implied growth (2%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($57) with 20% growth, 12% discount rate
- Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$1.56B
Year 2$1.95B
Year 3$2.43B
Year 4$3.04B
Year 5$3.80B
Terminal$55.91B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$1.25BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.