MODEL VERDICT
SITE Centers Corp. (SITC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $6.13 | CURRENT | -11.9% |
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $6.16 | Pending | -11.4% |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $6.65 | Pending | -18.6% |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $6.46 | Pending | -17.3% |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $6.54 | Pending | -18.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 22 industry peers | $7.31 | +19.2% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 11 industry peers | $179.57 | +2829.4% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 22 industry peers | $11.10 | +81.1% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 21 industry peers | $103.96 | +1595.9% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 22 industry peers | $12.75 | +108.0% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 22 industry peers | $7.83 | +27.7% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $44.39 | +624.2% | 100% | 73 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× (Current) | 4× | 4× | 4× | 6× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (14%) | $15 | $15 | $15 | $15 | $23 |
| Conservative (23%) | $17 | $17 | $17 | $17 | $25 |
| Base Case (35.6%) | $18 | $18 | $18 | $18 | $28 |
| Bull Case (48%) | $20 | $20 | $20 | $20 | $30 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 20.66 | 18.71 | 1.56 | 54.70 | 18.70 |
| EV/EBIT | 19.65 | 22.43 | 1.79 | 34.34 | 11.17 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.47 | 14.25 | 0.98 | 15.22 | 5.57 |
| P/FCF | 13.02 | 11.98 | 10.31 | 17.17 | 2.36 |
| P/FFO | 6.62 | 7.85 | 1.21 | 10.66 | 3.90 |
| P/TBV | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.01 | 1.70 | 0.26 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.31 | 1.31 | 1.01 | 1.62 | 0.24 |
| Div Yield | 0.21 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 1.06 | 0.38 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.87 | 5.07 | 2.90 | 6.31 | 1.43 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates SITC's fair value at $44.39 vs the current price of $6.13, implying +624.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 73/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $44.39 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $13.71 (P10) to $34.94 (P90), with a median of $24.17.
SITC's current P/E of 1.8x compares to the industry median of 30.7x (21 peers in the group). This represents a -94.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 20.7x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
31 analysts cover SITC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $8.00 (range: $8.00 — $8.00), implying +30.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (22), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 73/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 72.1% is 44.9 percentage points above the 7-year average (27.3%), with a Z-score of +2.4σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$26. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SITC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +2.4σ, meaning margins are 2.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (27.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 33210.0% to approximately $26. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.