MODEL VERDICT
SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc. (SITE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $125.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $145.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $144.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $137.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $135.48 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $102.85 | -18.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $106.72 | -15.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $95.56 | -23.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $134.18 | +6.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $79.33 | -36.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $125.72 | +0.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $23.40 | -81.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $156.39 | +24.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $163.82 | +30.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $96.00 | -23.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $134.98 | +7.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $117.38 | -6.6% | 100% | 85 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 31× | 34× | 37× (Current) | 40× | 43× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $107 | $117 | $127 | $137 | $148 |
| Conservative (5%) | $110 | $120 | $131 | $142 | $152 |
| Base Case (4.2%) | $109 | $119 | $130 | $140 | $151 |
| Bull Case (6%) | $110 | $121 | $132 | $142 | $153 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 43.47 | 46.59 | 21.89 | 57.68 | 11.45 |
| EV/EBIT | 32.80 | 35.67 | 18.26 | 41.75 | 7.88 |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.05 | 21.70 | 13.92 | 30.39 | 5.74 |
| P/FCF | 34.37 | 30.60 | 22.75 | 63.85 | 13.78 |
| P/FFO | 26.71 | 24.66 | 15.38 | 37.11 | 7.36 |
| P/TBV | 19.52 | 10.31 | 6.02 | 63.22 | 20.17 |
| P/AFFO | 31.37 | 31.41 | 17.47 | 42.99 | 8.36 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.48 | 5.00 | 3.34 | 10.49 | 3.10 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.86 | 1.64 | 1.19 | 3.19 | 0.75 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates SITE's fair value at $117.38 vs the current price of $125.61, implying -6.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $117.38 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $116.53 (P10) to $141.39 (P90), with a median of $128.68.
SITE's current P/E of 37.3x compares to the industry median of 28.4x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +31.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 43.5x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
15 analysts cover SITE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $162.29 (range: $140.00 — $200.00), implying +29.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (7), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SITE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (6.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 12820.0% to approximately $287. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.