MODEL VERDICT
Tanger Inc. (SKT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $36.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $36.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $37.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $36.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $36.46 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 8 REIT peers | $29.74 | -18.2% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / AFFO 2 REIT peers | $34.98 | -3.8% | 20% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $13.05 | -64.1% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 4 industry peers | $27.15 | -25.3% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 7 industry peers | $12.27 | -66.2% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $24.11 | -33.7% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $32.06 | -11.8% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $30.62 | -15.8% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $38.85 | +6.9% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $28.11 | -22.7% | 100% | 86 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 30× | 33× | 36× (Current) | 39× | 42× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $31 | $34 | $37 | $41 | $44 |
| Conservative (7%) | $32 | $35 | $38 | $42 | $45 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $33 | $36 | $40 | $43 | $46 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $34 | $37 | $41 | $44 | $48 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 71.03 | 36.08 | 23.30 | 236.56 | 82.29 |
| EV/EBIT | 41.76 | 32.15 | 19.34 | 99.31 | 27.49 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.84 | 17.54 | 7.72 | 20.03 | 4.13 |
| P/FCF | 13.39 | 11.44 | 6.75 | 24.24 | 6.24 |
| P/FFO | 12.73 | 14.19 | 6.87 | 16.50 | 3.52 |
| P/TBV | 4.20 | 3.81 | 2.54 | 6.12 | 1.32 |
| P/AFFO | 19.05 | 17.45 | 8.61 | 29.98 | 7.72 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.14 | 3.93 | 2.57 | 5.58 | 1.15 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.10 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.89 | 4.61 | 2.37 | 7.21 | 1.89 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates SKT's fair value at $28.11 vs the current price of $36.35, implying -22.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $28.11 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $24.47 (P10) to $31.75 (P90), with a median of $27.74.
SKT's current P/E of 36.4x compares to the industry median of 24.1x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +50.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 71.0x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
18 analysts cover SKT with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $35.67 (range: $34.00 — $37.00), implying -1.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (14), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SKT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (8.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1800.0% to approximately $30. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.