MODEL VERDICT
Tanger Inc. (SKT) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $37.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $35.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $33.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $34.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $34.11 | Below threshold | -1.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 21 industry peers | $20.18 | -45.5% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $26.96 | -27.3% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 21 industry peers | $10.48 | -71.7% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 20 industry peers | $20.63 | -44.3% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 20 analyst estimates | $37.30 | +0.6% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 21 industry peers | $40.00 | +7.9% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 21 industry peers | $38.76 | +4.6% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $24.94 | -32.7% | 100% | 89 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 36× | 39× | 42× (Current) | 45× | 48× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (12%) | $36 | $39 | $42 | $44 | $47 |
| Conservative (20%) | $38 | $41 | $44 | $48 | $51 |
| Base Case (30.8%) | $41 | $45 | $48 | $52 | $55 |
| Bull Case (42%) | $45 | $49 | $52 | $56 | $60 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 78.56 | 38.78 | 23.30 | 236.56 | 89.66 |
| EV/EBIT | 41.36 | 32.15 | 19.34 | 99.31 | 27.62 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.17 | 14.96 | 7.72 | 18.40 | 4.49 |
| P/FCF | 11.94 | 11.37 | 6.75 | 24.24 | 5.85 |
| P/FFO | 11.49 | 11.41 | 5.71 | 16.50 | 4.29 |
| P/TBV | 3.89 | 3.81 | 2.54 | 5.45 | 1.01 |
| P/AFFO | 16.81 | 14.97 | 6.90 | 29.98 | 8.74 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.93 | 3.73 | 2.57 | 5.58 | 1.05 |
| Div Yield | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.10 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.49 | 4.28 | 2.37 | 7.21 | 1.77 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 22 valuation metrics, the model estimates SKT's fair value at $24.94 vs the current price of $37.06, implying -32.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $24.94 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $19.58 (P10) to $29.92 (P90), with a median of $24.66.
SKT's current P/E of 42.1x compares to the industry median of 23.4x (20 peers in the group). This represents a +79.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 78.6x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
18 analysts cover SKT with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $35.33 (range: $34.00 — $36.00), implying -4.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (13), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SKT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (5.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4850.0% to approximately $19. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.