MODEL VERDICT
Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. (SKWD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $45.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $45.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $46.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $46.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $45.57 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $32.70 | -28.0% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $45.30 | -0.3% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $60.31 | +32.7% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $32.65 | -28.1% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Tangible Book 10 bank peers | $43.65 | -3.9% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $48.83 | +7.5% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $37.86 | -16.7% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $46.08 | +1.4% | 100% | 63 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (23%) | $42 | $50 | $57 | $64 | $71 |
| Conservative (38%) | $47 | $55 | $63 | $71 | $79 |
| Base Case (58.2%) | $54 | $64 | $73 | $82 | $91 |
| Bull Case (79%) | $61 | $72 | $82 | $92 | $102 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates SKWD's fair value at $46.08 vs the current price of $45.44, implying +1.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 63/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $46.08 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $37.16 (P10) to $47.50 (P90), with a median of $42.28.
SKWD's current P/E of 15.8x compares to the industry median of 11.4x (10 peers in the group). This represents a +39.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
11 analysts cover SKWD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $70.60 (range: $63.00 — $80.00), implying +55.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (7), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 63/100, based on: data completeness (25), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SKWD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (3.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6590.0% to approximately $16. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.