MODEL VERDICT
Sky Harbour Group Corporation (SKYH)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $9.93 | CURRENT | — |
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $10.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $10.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $10.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $10.79 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $4.88 | -50.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $1.61 | -83.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $5.69 | -42.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $1.80 | -81.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $4.58 | -53.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $6.26 | -37.0% | 100% | 53 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 92× | 101× | 110× (Current) | 119× | 128× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $9 | $9 | $10 | $11 | $12 |
| Conservative (7%) | $9 | $10 | $11 | $11 | $12 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $9 | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $9 | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 1.88 | 1.71 | 0.38 | 4.12 | 1.26 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.86 | 1.69 | 0.38 | 4.06 | 1.24 |
| P/S Ratio | 72.43 | 23.16 | 20.13 | 250.91 | 92.41 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 11 valuation metrics, the model estimates SKYH's fair value at $6.26 vs the current price of $9.93, implying -37.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 53/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $6.26 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $3.52 (P10) to $11.47 (P90), with a median of $7.05.
SKYH's current P/E of 110.3x compares to the industry median of 54.2x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +103.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
2 analysts cover SKYH with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $14.50 (range: $13.00 — $16.00), implying +46.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 53/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SKYH.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.