MODEL VERDICT
Silgan Holdings Inc. (SLGN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $39.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $39.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $41.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $40.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $41.48 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $47.00 | +18.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $40.80 | +2.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $41.53 | +4.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $52.38 | +31.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $51.14 | +28.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $59.11 | +48.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $51.34 | +29.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $57.69 | +45.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $41.04 | +3.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $52.09 | +31.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $45.49 | +14.5% | 100% | 94 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $30 | $36 | $41 | $47 | $52 |
| Conservative (5%) | $31 | $37 | $43 | $48 | $54 |
| Base Case (-0.5%) | $30 | $35 | $40 | $46 | $51 |
| Bull Case (-1%) | $29 | $35 | $40 | $46 | $51 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.96 | 15.18 | 13.26 | 20.17 | 2.51 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.71 | 14.21 | 12.99 | 17.72 | 1.63 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.70 | 9.88 | 7.99 | 10.71 | 0.88 |
| P/FCF | 12.93 | 12.14 | 10.10 | 19.32 | 3.20 |
| P/FFO | 8.48 | 8.39 | 7.03 | 10.09 | 1.06 |
| P/AFFO | 15.52 | 14.21 | 12.63 | 20.46 | 3.06 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.91 | 3.05 | 1.88 | 3.39 | 0.54 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.83 | 0.84 | 0.66 | 0.95 | 0.09 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates SLGN's fair value at $45.49 vs the current price of $39.72, implying +14.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $45.49 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $44.52 (P10) to $52.03 (P90), with a median of $48.21.
SLGN's current P/E of 14.7x compares to the industry median of 15.4x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -4.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 16.0x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
21 analysts cover SLGN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $50.50 (range: $46.00 — $56.00), implying +27.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (14), Hold (5), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SLGN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (9.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 13660.0% to approximately $94. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.