MODEL VERDICT
Southern Missouri Bancorp, Inc. (SMBC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $68.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $67.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $67.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $66.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $66.80 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $69.05 | +0.8% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 11 industry peers | $58.55 | -14.6% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 11 bank peers | $67.92 | -0.9% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 11 industry peers | $29.92 | -56.3% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $69.05 | +0.8% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $66.40 | -3.1% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $64.62 | -5.7% | 100% | 97 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $49 | $60 | $70 | $81 | $92 |
| Conservative (8%) | $50 | $61 | $72 | $84 | $95 |
| Base Case (11.6%) | $52 | $64 | $75 | $87 | $98 |
| Bull Case (16%) | $54 | $66 | $78 | $90 | $102 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.35 | 11.41 | 8.80 | 13.87 | 1.80 |
| EV/EBIT | 9.59 | 9.00 | 6.38 | 14.28 | 2.75 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.42 | 7.75 | 5.81 | 12.39 | 2.28 |
| P/FCF | 9.38 | 9.61 | 6.58 | 11.42 | 1.75 |
| P/FFO | 9.86 | 9.75 | 7.78 | 12.93 | 1.72 |
| P/TBV | 1.53 | 1.58 | 1.18 | 1.79 | 0.20 |
| P/AFFO | 11.34 | 10.73 | 8.52 | 14.84 | 2.34 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.35 | 1.33 | 1.08 | 1.66 | 0.18 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.81 | 2.99 | 2.18 | 3.63 | 0.54 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates SMBC's fair value at $64.62 vs the current price of $68.53, implying -5.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $64.62 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $59.17 (P10) to $66.09 (P90), with a median of $62.59.
SMBC's current P/E of 13.2x compares to the industry median of 13.3x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -0.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.3x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
3 analysts cover SMBC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $73.50 (range: $71.00 — $76.00), implying +7.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: SMBC trades at the 5130th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (11.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SMBC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (25.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1420.0% to approximately $78. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.