MODEL VERDICT
Standard Motor Products, Inc. (SMP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.38 | $38.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $38.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $37.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $36.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $37.47 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $50.52 | +31.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $56.75 | +47.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $65.69 | +70.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $11.69 | -69.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $87.87 | +128.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $23.76 | -38.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $57.93 | +50.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $63.33 | +64.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $65.79 | +70.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $11.55 | -70.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $42.02 | +9.1% | 100% | 85 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 7× | 9× | 11× (Current) | 13× | 15× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $25 | $33 | $40 | $47 | $54 |
| Conservative (5%) | $26 | $33 | $41 | $48 | $55 |
| Base Case (7.0%) | $26 | $34 | $41 | $49 | $56 |
| Bull Case (9%) | $27 | $35 | $42 | $50 | $58 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.99 | 13.04 | 10.47 | 20.97 | 3.64 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.21 | 10.03 | 8.54 | 15.36 | 2.41 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.08 | 6.43 | 6.19 | 8.90 | 1.06 |
| P/FCF | 20.73 | 19.92 | 7.63 | 44.27 | 12.74 |
| P/FFO | 9.65 | 9.57 | 6.74 | 14.50 | 2.60 |
| P/TBV | 3.46 | 3.16 | 1.98 | 7.85 | 2.04 |
| P/AFFO | 13.65 | 13.89 | 9.84 | 17.98 | 3.05 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.56 | 1.36 | 1.09 | 2.41 | 0.48 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.46 | 1.07 | 0.23 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates SMP's fair value at $42.02 vs the current price of $38.51, implying +9.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $42.02 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $39.31 (P10) to $51.62 (P90), with a median of $45.33.
SMP's current P/E of 10.9x compares to the industry median of 18.7x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -41.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 14.0x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
12 analysts cover SMP with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (1), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 4.6% is 1.9 percentage points above the 7-year average (8.2%), with a Z-score of +1.3σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$88. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SMP's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.3σ, meaning margins are 1.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (8.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 12750.0% to approximately $88. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.