MODEL VERDICT
The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $13.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $13.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $11.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $11.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $10.44 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $21.92 | +65.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $18.43 | +39.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $17.65 | +33.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $15.80 | +19.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $26.90 | +103.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $32.28 | +144.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $14.07 | +6.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $21.16 | +59.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $12.80 | -3.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $17.52 | +32.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $15.80 | +19.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $31.73 | +139.8% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (10%) | $10 | $12 | $15 | $17 | $19 |
| Conservative (16%) | $11 | $13 | $15 | $18 | $20 |
| Base Case (23.9%) | $11 | $14 | $16 | $19 | $21 |
| Bull Case (32%) | $12 | $15 | $18 | $20 | $23 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 50.29 | 32.61 | 19.69 | 98.98 | 34.57 |
| EV/EBIT | 87.59 | 24.42 | 14.10 | 461.88 | 165.27 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.82 | 18.37 | 9.26 | 27.02 | 6.18 |
| P/FCF | 30.59 | 32.28 | 12.91 | 53.93 | 13.34 |
| P/FFO | 32.02 | 26.66 | 16.00 | 63.14 | 16.59 |
| P/AFFO | 34.73 | 28.32 | 19.46 | 70.52 | 18.49 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.59 | 2.66 | 1.13 | 3.41 | 0.77 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.33 | 3.27 | 1.40 | 4.64 | 1.02 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates SMPL's fair value at $31.73 vs the current price of $13.23, implying +139.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $31.73 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $24.59 (P10) to $51.85 (P90), with a median of $34.39.
SMPL's current P/E of 13.0x compares to the industry median of 17.3x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -25.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 50.3x over 6 years. Signal: Discount.
24 analysts cover SMPL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $20.17 (range: $13.00 — $31.00), implying +52.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (16), Hold (8), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SMPL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (5.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 26310.0% to approximately $48. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.