MODEL VERDICT
NuScale Power Corporation (SMR) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $13.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $14.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $16.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $20.51 | Below threshold | -13.8% |
| Dec 12, 2025 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $18.34 | Below threshold | -3.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 15 industry peers | $8.82 | -34.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $9.22 | -31.4% | 100% | 52 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 3.98 | 3.13 | 1.95 | 7.71 | 2.63 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.51 | 2.78 | 1.87 | 6.60 | 2.23 |
| P/S Ratio | 197.67 | 45.13 | 10.58 | 735.64 | 305.48 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 2 valuation metrics, the model estimates SMR's fair value at $9.22 vs the current price of $13.44, implying -31.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 52/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $9.22 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%).
SMR's current P/E of -9.1x compares to the industry median of 41.8x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -121.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
14 analysts cover SMR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $31.00 (range: $20.00 — $55.00), implying +130.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (4), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 52/100, based on: data completeness (3), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SMR.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.