MODEL VERDICT
Snap-on Incorporated (SNA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $380.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $378.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $380.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $368.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.41 | $379.72 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $415.11 | +9.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $496.95 | +30.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $579.68 | +52.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $459.42 | +20.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $578.20 | +52.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $543.15 | +42.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $470.66 | +23.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $432.07 | +13.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $395.25 | +3.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $579.50 | +52.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $459.32 | +20.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $537.49 | +41.3% | 100% | 84 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 16× | 18× | 20× (Current) | 22× | 24× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $320 | $360 | $401 | $441 | $481 |
| Conservative (7%) | $329 | $370 | $411 | $452 | $493 |
| Base Case (10.9%) | $341 | $383 | $426 | $468 | $511 |
| Bull Case (15%) | $352 | $396 | $440 | $484 | $528 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.34 | 14.96 | 13.58 | 17.96 | 1.73 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.47 | 11.20 | 10.32 | 12.96 | 1.01 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.92 | 10.19 | 9.86 | 12.60 | 1.21 |
| P/FCF | 15.64 | 16.02 | 9.95 | 20.95 | 3.53 |
| P/FFO | 13.76 | 12.96 | 12.05 | 16.37 | 1.75 |
| P/TBV | 4.07 | 4.17 | 3.60 | 4.44 | 0.27 |
| P/AFFO | 15.04 | 14.25 | 13.35 | 17.57 | 1.70 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.89 | 2.82 | 2.44 | 3.35 | 0.29 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.92 | 2.61 | 2.54 | 3.56 | 0.47 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates SNA's fair value at $537.49 vs the current price of $380.39, implying +41.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 84/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $537.49 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $407.37 (P10) to $453.60 (P90), with a median of $430.11.
SNA's current P/E of 19.8x compares to the industry median of 30.2x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -34.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 15.3x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
17 analysts cover SNA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $413.00 (range: $395.00 — $431.00), implying +8.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (4), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 84/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: SNA trades at the N/Ath percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (15.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SNA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (26.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 120.0% to approximately $385. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.