MODEL VERDICT
Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc. (SNCY)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $15.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $16.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $18.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $17.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $17.32 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $12.64 | -19.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $20.10 | +27.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $12.07 | -23.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $20.70 | +31.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $25.28 | +60.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $25.13 | +59.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $18.86 | +19.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $17.43 | +10.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $10.38 | -34.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $19.51 | +23.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $19.69 | +24.7% | 100% | 76 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $12 | $14 | $16 | $18 | $20 |
| Conservative (7%) | $12 | $14 | $16 | $18 | $20 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $13 | $15 | $17 | $19 | $21 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $13 | $15 | $17 | $20 | $22 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 23.51 | 15.19 | 12.79 | 54.69 | 17.62 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.46 | 12.07 | 11.49 | 27.38 | 6.78 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.45 | 7.25 | 6.20 | 12.21 | 2.57 |
| P/FCF | 20.50 | 9.40 | 6.83 | 45.28 | 21.50 |
| P/FFO | 7.61 | 5.70 | 5.20 | 11.35 | 3.02 |
| P/TBV | 4.80 | 4.41 | 2.39 | 9.02 | 2.61 |
| P/AFFO | 19.96 | 10.05 | 7.85 | 41.99 | 19.11 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.94 | 1.79 | 1.26 | 3.30 | 0.81 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.20 | 0.88 | 0.70 | 2.59 | 0.79 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates SNCY's fair value at $19.69 vs the current price of $15.79, implying +24.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 76/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $19.69 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $15.85 (P10) to $23.57 (P90), with a median of $19.45.
SNCY's current P/E of 16.4x compares to the industry median of 12.6x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +30.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 23.5x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
11 analysts cover SNCY with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $21.00 (range: $21.00 — $21.00), implying +33.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 76/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SNCY's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (10.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 32920.0% to approximately $68. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.