MODEL VERDICT
Schneider National, Inc. (SNDR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $31.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $30.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $29.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $27.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $28.29 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $33.82 | +7.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $47.77 | +51.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $27.84 | -11.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $48.89 | +55.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $33.93 | +7.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $53.47 | +69.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $49.89 | +58.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $45.14 | +43.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $27.83 | -11.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $49.15 | +56.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $43.40 | +37.9% | 100% | 75 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 45× | 49× | 53× (Current) | 57× | 61× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $27 | $29 | $32 | $34 | $37 |
| Conservative (5%) | $28 | $30 | $33 | $35 | $38 |
| Base Case (-13.1%) | $23 | $25 | $27 | $29 | $31 |
| Bull Case (-18%) | $22 | $24 | $26 | $28 | $30 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.71 | 18.99 | 9.14 | 44.97 | 14.69 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.48 | 14.78 | 6.54 | 33.47 | 10.23 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.93 | 6.90 | 4.22 | 9.76 | 1.77 |
| P/FCF | 50.55 | 24.19 | 13.40 | 187.95 | 67.71 |
| P/FFO | 7.64 | 7.32 | 5.18 | 9.72 | 1.49 |
| P/TBV | 1.95 | 1.84 | 1.66 | 2.29 | 0.22 |
| P/AFFO | 27.84 | 29.77 | 10.96 | 44.19 | 13.57 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.68 | 1.73 | 1.47 | 1.98 | 0.18 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.63 | 0.97 | 0.10 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates SNDR's fair value at $43.40 vs the current price of $31.47, implying +37.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $43.40 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $31.89 (P10) to $52.79 (P90), with a median of $39.94.
SNDR's current P/E of 53.3x compares to the industry median of 47.2x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +13.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 24.7x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
25 analysts cover SNDR with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $29.67 (range: $26.00 — $35.00), implying -5.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (13), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: SNDR trades at the 5000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (24.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SNDR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (6.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6210.0% to approximately $51. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.