MODEL VERDICT
Smith & Nephew plc (SNN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $31.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $31.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $34.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $34.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $33.48 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $37.40 | +20.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $92.96 | +198.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $35.09 | +12.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $42.98 | +37.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $48.74 | +56.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $43.12 | +38.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $7.29 | -76.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $99.50 | +219.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $104.39 | +235.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $35.09 | +12.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $42.90 | +37.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $55.42 | +77.8% | 100% | 87 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 18× | 20× | 22× (Current) | 24× | 26× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $27 | $30 | $33 | $36 | $39 |
| Conservative (5%) | $27 | $30 | $33 | $36 | $39 |
| Base Case (7.1%) | $28 | $31 | $34 | $37 | $40 |
| Bull Case (10%) | $28 | $32 | $35 | $38 | $41 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 33.00 | 28.85 | 22.73 | 53.78 | 11.41 |
| EV/EBIT | 31.21 | 25.39 | 17.00 | 63.49 | 16.73 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.82 | 14.92 | 9.18 | 24.26 | 5.17 |
| P/FCF | 38.86 | 32.40 | 16.77 | 106.96 | 31.02 |
| P/FFO | 13.85 | 13.98 | 7.54 | 18.81 | 4.11 |
| P/TBV | 14.02 | 11.86 | 5.34 | 26.79 | 7.45 |
| P/AFFO | 23.82 | 22.38 | 16.42 | 33.55 | 6.73 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.64 | 2.71 | 1.14 | 4.09 | 0.97 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.65 | 2.32 | 1.07 | 4.09 | 1.12 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates SNN's fair value at $55.42 vs the current price of $31.16, implying +77.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $55.42 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $50.89 (P10) to $65.30 (P90), with a median of $57.74.
SNN's current P/E of 21.6x compares to the industry median of 24.4x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -11.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 33.0x over 7 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
22 analysts cover SNN with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $32.00 (range: $32.00 — $32.00), implying +2.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (15), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SNN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (8.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8260.0% to approximately $57. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.