MODEL VERDICT
Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. (SPCE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Sales 58 industry peers | $0.27 | -90.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $88.12 | +3163.6% | 100% | 48 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 3.60 | 2.85 | 0.46 | 9.86 | 3.11 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.60 | 2.85 | 0.46 | 9.86 | 3.11 |
| P/S Ratio | 3523.71 | 593.78 | 20.85 | 21846.36 | 8086.49 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 3 valuation metrics, the model estimates SPCE's fair value at $88.12 vs the current price of $2.70, implying +3163.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 48/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $88.12 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $0.04 (P10) to $174.43 (P90), with a median of $42.09.
SPCE's current P/E of -0.2x compares to the industry median of 42.7x (38 peers in the group). This represents a -100.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
17 analysts cover SPCE with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $2.90 (range: $2.30 — $3.50), implying +7.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (7), Sell (5), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 48/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SPCE.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.