MODEL VERDICT
S&P Global Inc. (SPGI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $426.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $436.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $442.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $430.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $415.42 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $386.56 | -9.3% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 6 industry peers | $441.44 | +3.6% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $266.17 | -37.5% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $357.99 | -16.0% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $456.17 | +7.1% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $552.22 | +29.6% | 100% | 83 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 25× | 27× | 29× (Current) | 31× | 33× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $379 | $410 | $440 | $470 | $501 |
| Conservative (6%) | $387 | $418 | $449 | $480 | $511 |
| Base Case (8.7%) | $398 | $430 | $462 | $494 | $526 |
| Bull Case (12%) | $409 | $442 | $475 | $508 | $540 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 37.98 | 35.65 | 31.75 | 53.53 | 7.46 |
| EV/EBIT | 27.09 | 26.22 | 22.54 | 37.75 | 5.26 |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.23 | 22.45 | 19.65 | 29.28 | 3.45 |
| P/FCF | 31.30 | 29.22 | 22.80 | 42.43 | 7.23 |
| P/FFO | 31.05 | 30.91 | 25.04 | 37.27 | 4.25 |
| P/AFFO | 32.00 | 31.69 | 25.57 | 38.74 | 4.34 |
| P/B Ratio | 11.90 | 4.41 | 2.68 | 24.04 | 10.27 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 10.95 | 10.69 | 9.54 | 13.75 | 1.36 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates SPGI's fair value at $552.22 vs the current price of $426.06, implying +29.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $552.22 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $368.10 (P10) to $807.85 (P90), with a median of $569.99.
SPGI's current P/E of 29.1x compares to the industry median of 26.4x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +10.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 38.0x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
28 analysts cover SPGI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $548.11 (range: $482.00 — $627.00), implying +28.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (24), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SPGI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (29.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3180.0% to approximately $562. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.