MODEL VERDICT
Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. (SPH)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $19.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $19.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $18.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $19.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $19.73 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $33.30 | +67.4% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $25.70 | +29.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 6 industry peers | $37.73 | +89.7% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $37.43 | +88.2% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $15.11 | -24.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $29.09 | +46.3% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $38.40 | +93.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $38.89 | +95.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $33.30 | +67.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $28.15 | +41.5% | 100% | 85 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $14 | $17 | $20 | $24 | $27 |
| Conservative (7%) | $14 | $17 | $21 | $24 | $28 |
| Base Case (10.8%) | $14 | $18 | $22 | $25 | $29 |
| Bull Case (15%) | $15 | $19 | $22 | $26 | $30 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.21 | 11.44 | 6.96 | 19.86 | 4.75 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.82 | 13.80 | 10.17 | 17.15 | 2.86 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.86 | 9.13 | 6.83 | 10.33 | 1.11 |
| P/FCF | 11.21 | 7.71 | 4.72 | 20.97 | 6.94 |
| P/FFO | 6.04 | 6.14 | 4.08 | 7.90 | 1.36 |
| P/AFFO | 20.15 | 9.33 | 4.70 | 72.91 | 24.10 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.30 | 2.09 | 1.95 | 3.22 | 0.45 |
| Div Yield | 0.09 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.14 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.82 | 0.84 | 0.65 | 1.07 | 0.13 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 24 valuation metrics, the model estimates SPH's fair value at $28.15 vs the current price of $19.89, implying +41.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $28.15 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $24.32 (P10) to $30.16 (P90), with a median of $27.19.
SPH's current P/E of 12.3x compares to the industry median of 20.6x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -40.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 12.2x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
16 analysts cover SPH with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $21.00 (range: $17.00 — $25.00), implying +5.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (7), Sell (5), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 9.3% is 2.0 percentage points above the 7-year average (7.3%), with a Z-score of +1.1σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$16. (2) Multiple compression: SPH trades at the 910th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (12.2×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SPH's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (7.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2150.0% to approximately $16. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.