MODEL VERDICT
Sound Point Meridian Capital Inc (SPMC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 104 industry peers | $10.18 | -23.8% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 117 industry peers | $14.86 | +11.2% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 110 bank peers | $15.07 | +12.8% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Earnings Yield 105 industry peers | $10.19 | -23.7% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 98 analyst estimates | $21.27 | +59.2% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $14.59 | +9.2% | 100% | 62 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $10 | $12 | $14 | $15 | $17 |
| Conservative (7%) | $10 | $12 | $14 | $16 | $18 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $11 | $12 | $14 | $16 | $18 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $11 | $13 | $15 | $17 | $19 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 11 valuation metrics, the model estimates SPMC's fair value at $14.59 vs the current price of $13.36, implying +9.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 62/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $14.59 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $8.90 (P10) to $18.71 (P90), with a median of $13.70.
SPMC's current P/E of 15.4x compares to the industry median of 11.7x (104 peers in the group). This represents a +31.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
2 analysts cover SPMC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $19.50 (range: $18.50 — $20.00), implying +46.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 62/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SPMC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.