MODEL VERDICT
SunPower Inc. (SPWR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $0.92 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $3.36 | +266.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $0.75 | -18.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $0.62 | -32.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $2.98 | +225.6% | 100% | 43 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/S Ratio | 5.22 | 4.44 | 3.22 | 7.99 | 2.48 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 8 valuation metrics, the model estimates SPWR's fair value at $2.98 vs the current price of $0.92, implying +225.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 43/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $2.98 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $2.12 (P10) to $3.36 (P90), with a median of $2.73.
SPWR's current P/E of -13.7x compares to the industry median of 19.9x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -168.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
45 analysts cover SPWR with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $15.81 (range: $3.00 — $28.00), implying +1626.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (22), Sell (13), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 43/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SPWR.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.