Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$18.26
→
Intrinsic$14.89
-18%
$10.44$14.89$23.33
Market implies 30% growth for 5 years
SRAD trades at a premium to our conservative estimate — investors expect above-average performance.
At $18, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (30%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $10 → Bull $23. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $18 | $19 | $21 | $23 |
| 10% | $13 | $14 | $15 | $16 |
| 12% | $10 | $11 | $12 | $12 |
| 14% | $8 | $9 | $9 | $10 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($23) offers 28% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
Bear Case
- Bear case ($10) implies 43% downside at 20% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 30% growth expectations vs 25% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 18% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$156.69M
Year 2$195.87M
Year 3$244.84M
Year 4$306.04M
Year 5$382.56M
Terminal$5.63B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$125.36MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.