MODEL VERDICT
Sportradar Group AG (SRAD) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $18.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $17.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $16.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $17.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $20.88 | Below threshold | -17.3% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 113 analyst estimates | $10.10 | -44.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 80 industry peers | $30.67 | +68.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 71 industry peers | $2.60 | -85.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 105 industry peers | $7.70 | -57.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 77 industry peers | $11.52 | -36.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 107 industry peers | $8.09 | -55.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 32 industry peers | $4.93 | -73.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 124 industry peers | $14.38 | -21.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 125 industry peers | $12.96 | -29.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 75 industry peers | $2.75 | -84.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 107 industry peers | $7.71 | -57.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $38.93 | +113.2% | 100% | 71 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 131× | 143× | 155× (Current) | 167× | 179× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (12%) | $15 | $16 | $17 | $19 | $20 |
| Conservative (20%) | $16 | $17 | $19 | $20 | $22 |
| Base Case (31.1%) | $17 | $19 | $20 | $22 | $23 |
| Bull Case (42%) | $19 | $20 | $22 | $24 | $25 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 235.13 | 232.31 | 100.45 | 375.43 | 122.17 |
| EV/EBIT | 56.40 | 51.05 | 41.65 | 81.84 | 17.55 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.72 | 13.10 | 11.51 | 25.19 | 6.38 |
| P/FCF | 1000.70 | 311.82 | 43.97 | 3335.19 | 1574.92 |
| P/FFO | 20.57 | 16.59 | 14.53 | 34.54 | 9.38 |
| P/AFFO | 141.24 | 55.74 | 15.48 | 438.01 | 201.18 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.18 | 5.02 | 4.01 | 6.66 | 1.33 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.49 | 4.62 | 3.99 | 8.74 | 2.20 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates SRAD's fair value at $38.93 vs the current price of $18.26, implying +113.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 71/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $38.93 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $13.10 (P10) to $98.20 (P90), with a median of $41.44.
SRAD's current P/E of 154.8x compares to the industry median of 26.0x (71 peers in the group). This represents a +496.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 235.1x over 4 years. Signal: High Premium.
16 analysts cover SRAD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $32.00 (range: $26.00 — $37.00), implying +75.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 71/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 7.7% is 5.2 percentage points above the 4-year average (2.5%), with a Z-score of +6.1σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$8. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SRAD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +6.1σ, meaning margins are 6.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (2.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5850.0% to approximately $8. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.