Sempra (SRE)
Valuation Overview•Is Sempra Overvalued or Undervalued?
Priced at a premium to peer multiples and intrinsic cash flows, demanding strong execution to justify current levels.
Fragile underlying quality score of 42/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant profitability concerns.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This is paired with healthy capital returns, driven by a balanced mix of reliable dividends and share buybacks.
SRE struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. However, the balance sheet carries elevated leverage, requiring careful monitoring of debt servicing capabilities.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-4.1% 3Y CAGR) however, earnings have severely contracted over the same period. This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 25.0% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.7B | +5.8% | -4.1% | +3.8% | +3.0% | |
| EBITDA | $1.7B | — | +1.6% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $1.1B | -35.8% | -4.9% | — | +3.1% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.76 | -37.8% | -6.0% | -15.6% | +0.2% | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$652.0M | -82.8% | -12.8% | -23.7% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 30.6% | 26.7% | 26.9% | 26.1% |
| Operating Margin | 25.0% | 21.7% | 22.2% | 21.5% |
| Net Margin | 15.2% | 18.3% | 15.8% | 16.0% |
| FCF Margin | -69.0% | -27.8% | -23.9% | -16.5% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $1.51 | $1.51 | +0.0% | ||
| Q1'26 | $1.24 | $1.28 | +3.2% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.91 | $1.11 | +21.8% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.85 | $0.89 | +5.2% | ||
| Q2'25 | $1.32 | $1.44 | +9.1% | ||
| Q1'25 | $1.47 | $1.50 | +2.0% | ||
| Q4'24 | $1.05 | $0.89 | -15.2% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.94 | $0.89 | -5.3% |
Total return is +25.4% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +0.4%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +1.8% | -7.5% | — |
| 1Y | +25.4% | +0.4% | +3.5% |
| 3YCAGR | +10.0% | -9.7% | +10.2% |
| 5YCAGR | +8.3% | -4.7% | +17.5% |
| 10YCAGR | +7.4% | -6.3% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Sempra (SRE) valuation, health, and returns.
Sempra is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Slightly expensive versus peers compared to industry peers. overvalued (implying -41.3% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $53.21)
Sempra has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $53.21 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $73.54 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $106.20 (implying +17.1% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Sempra displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 42/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 3.2%.
Sempra pays a 2.7% dividend yield, covered by a 87% payout ratio with 15 years of growth, supplemented by a 1.6% buyback yield.
Sempra's current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +5.8% 1Y revenue growth and -37.8% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -4.1%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 26 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 67% of recent quarters with a -1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +17.1% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Sempra include: -12.7% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.27x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.