Upside case
Bull case
$147+56.6%
SRE would need investors to value it at roughly 29x earnings — about 10x more generous than today's 18x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Sempra (SRE) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
25
analysts
20 bullish · 0 bearish · 25 covering SRE
Strong Buy
1
Buy
19
Hold
5
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$107
+14.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$65 – $147
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
25
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
18.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $60.9B
SRE price targets
Three scenarios for where SRE stock could go
Current
~$94
Confidence
57 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $94
Bear
$65
Base
$114
Bull
$147
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$114+21.6%
At 22x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$65-30.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 6x multiple contraction could push SRE down roughly 30% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Sempra
SRE · NYSEUtilitiesDiversified UtilitiesDecember year-end
Sempra is a regulated utility holding company that operates natural gas and electric distribution networks across California, Texas, and Mexico. It generates revenue primarily through regulated utility operations — San Diego Gas & Electric (~40% of earnings), Southern California Gas (~30%), and Sempra Texas Utilities (~20%) — with additional income from liquefied natural gas export facilities. The company's moat comes from its regulated monopoly status in essential service territories and strategic infrastructure assets like LNG terminals that benefit from growing global gas demand.
Market Cap
$60.9B
Revenue TTM
$13.7B
Net Income TTM
$2.0B
Net Margin
14.4%
SRE Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
17%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+3.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.44/$1.32
Revenue
$3.8B/$3.9B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.89/$0.85
Revenue
$3.0B/$3.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.11/$0.91
Revenue
$3.2B/$2.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.28/$1.24
Revenue
$3.7B/$4.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.44/$1.32 | +9.1% | $3.8B/$3.9B | -2.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.89/$0.85 | +5.2% | $3.0B/$3.1B | -3.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.11/$0.91 | +21.8% | $3.2B/$2.9B | +8.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.28/$1.24 | +3.2% | $3.7B/$4.0B | -7.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$14.1B
+2.7% YoY
FY2
$14.2B
+0.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.77
+25.0% YoY
FY2
$3.85
+2.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$3.3B
FCF Margin: -24.4%
Next Earnings
May 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.48
Expected Revenue
$4.1B
SRE beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
SRE Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $11.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
So Cal Gas Segment
61.8%
-24.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Entity-Wide Disclosure On Geographic Areas, United States
88.2%
-22.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
So Cal Gas Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 61.8% of FY 2024 revenue, down 24.6% YoY.
Entity-Wide Disclosure On Geographic Areas, United States is the largest reported region at 88.2%, down 22.4% YoY.
SRE Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Overvalued
Fair value est. $78 — implies -18.1% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
18.1%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
SRE
29.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+17% premium
vs Utilities Trailing P/E
SRE
29.5x
vs
Utilities
19.7x
+50% premium
vs SRE 5Y Avg P/E
Today
29.5x
vs
5Y Average
23.9x
+23% premium
Forward PE
18.3x
S&P 500
19.1x
-4%
Utilities
17.2x
+7%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
29.5x
S&P 500
25.2x
+17%
Utilities
19.7x
+50%
5Y Avg
23.9x
+23%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Utilities
1.73x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.3x
—
Utilities
11.5x
—
5Y Avg
14.8x
—
Price/FCF
13.3x
S&P 500
21.3x
-37%
Utilities
15.4x
-14%
5Y Avg
12.6x
+6%
Price/Sales
4.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
+42%
Utilities
2.2x
+104%
5Y Avg
3.6x
+25%
Dividend Yield
2.62%
S&P 500
1.88%
+40%
Utilities
3.07%
-15%
5Y Avg
2.95%
-11%
| Metric | SRE | S&P 500 | Utilities | 5Y Avg SRE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 18.3x | 19.1x | 17.2x | — |
| Trailing PE | 29.5x | 25.2x+17% | 19.7x+50% | 23.9x+23% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.73x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.3x | 11.5x | 14.8x |
| Price/FCF | 13.3x | 21.3x-37% | 15.4x-14% | 12.6x |
| Price/Sales | 4.4x | 3.1x+42% | 2.2x+104% | 3.6x+25% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.62% | 1.88% | 3.07% | 2.95% |
SRE trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 4 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSRE Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
SRE earns 15.9% operating margin on regulated earnings, 2.6% dividend yield. Utilities carry higher leverage than industrials as a structural feature of the business model.
Regulated Operations
Revenue, regulated margins, and earnings
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$13.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+5.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
15.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
14.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.01
Operating Margin
Operating income over revenue — primary regulated earnings signal
15.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
—
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$35.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
—
Regulated utilities typically operate at 3–5× net debt/FCF — this is structural, not a risk flag.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
4.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.7%
Dividend
2.6%
Buyback
0.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$58M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.46
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
653M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. Utilities operate with structural leverage (3–5× net debt/FCF) due to regulated, predictable cash flows.
Open full ratios pageSRE Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Debt & Cash Flow
Sempra’s growth is funded by significant spending, resulting in deeply negative cash flow and high debt, necessitating reliance on capital markets. This exposes the company to liquidity risk and potential refinancing challenges.
High Risk
Wildfire Exposure
California and Texas, where Sempra operates, are prone to wildfires; damage to infrastructure could exceed insurance coverage, potentially causing significant financial losses. Such events could disrupt operations and increase repair costs.
Medium
Project Development Risk
Energy infrastructure projects may not be completed on schedule or within budget, or may not operate at expected levels, delaying revenue recognition and increasing costs. Delays could also impact regulatory approvals and financing terms.
Medium
Regulatory Outcomes
Unconstructive rate case outcomes in California and Texas could negatively impact Sempra’s fundamentals and lead to higher financing costs. Adverse regulatory decisions may also affect future rate structures.
Medium
Inflation & Interest Rates
A resurgence in inflation could keep long‑term interest rates elevated, increasing financing costs for Sempra. Higher borrowing costs could squeeze margins and reduce capital availability.
Lower
Valuation Concerns
Some analysts believe the stock may be overvalued, trading at a premium to its peers, which could limit near‑term gains. Overvaluation may reduce upside potential if market sentiment shifts.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why SRE Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Strategic Ownership & Capital Expansion
Sempra owns 80% of Texas utility Oncor and holds a 25% stake in Sempra Infrastructure, positioning it for sector growth. The company unveiled a record $65 billion capital plan for 2026‑2030, a 17% increase over the prior plan, with a large portion earmarked for Oncor expansion and funded without issuing new common equity.
Oncor Transmission Growth & Data Center Demand
Oncor’s interconnection queue is expanding rapidly, driven largely by data center deployments. The utility projects an 18% compound annual growth rate for its rate base through 2030, supported by regulatory backing and strategic transmission expansions.
Long‑Term Dividend Growth & Yield
Sempra has increased its dividend for 22 consecutive years, delivering a current yield of approximately 2.64%. Analysts view the dividend payout ratio as sustainable based on projected earnings, reinforcing shareholder value.
Insider Confidence & Technical Buy Signals
Recent insider buying activity indicates management confidence in the company’s prospects. Technical indicators, including the 14‑day Relative Strength Index and moving averages, currently signal a buy for the stock.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
SRE Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$93.66
52W Range Position
74%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$73.06
+28.2% from the low
52-Week High
$101.03
-7.3% from the high
1 Month
-4.44%
3 Month
+7.21%
YTD
+4.4%
1 Year
+24.8%
3Y CAGR
+6.5%
5Y CAGR
+6.5%
10Y CAGR
+6.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
SRE vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
18.3x
vs 18.7x median
-2% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+2.7%
vs +4.5% median
-39% below peer median
Net Margin
14.4%
vs 14.5% median
-1% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SRE SRE Sempra | $60.9B | 18.3x | +2.7% | 14.4% | Buy | +14.2% |
NEE NEE NextEra Energy, Inc. | $198.9B | 23.6x | +9.1% | 29.3% | Buy | +2.9% |
DUK DUK Duke Energy Corporation | $97.7B | 18.7x | +2.4% | 15.4% | Hold | +7.9% |
SO SO The Southern Company | $105.4B | 20.4x | +4.5% | 14.5% | Hold | +6.5% |
D D Dominion Energy, Inc. | $54.2B | 17.2x | +5.7% | 13.5% | Hold | +7.5% |
EXC EXC Exelon Corporation | $46.1B | 15.8x | +3.7% | 11.2% | Hold | +9.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
SRE Dividend and Capital Return
SRE returns 2.7% total yield, led by a 2.62% dividend, raised 15 consecutive years.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
2.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.1%
Dividend Yield
2.62%
Payout Ratio
—
How SRE Splits Its Return
Div 2.62%
Dividend 2.62%Buybacks 0.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.46
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
15Y
3Y Div CAGR
4.1%
5Y Div CAGR
4.3%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$58M
Estimated Shares Retired
619.3K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
653M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.66 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.58 | +4.0% | 0.1% | 2.9% |
| 2024 | $2.48 | +4.2% | 0.1% | 2.8% |
| 2023 | $2.38 | +3.9% | 0.1% | 3.2% |
| 2022 | $2.29 | +4.1% | 1.0% | 3.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsSRE Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Sempra (SRE) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Sempra (SRE) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 25 analysts covering the stock, 20 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 5 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $107, implying +14.2% from the current price of $94. The bear case scenario is $65 and the bull case is $147.
02What is the SRE stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for SRE is $107 based on 25 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $118 (+26.0% from today), and the low-end target is $100 (+6.8%). The base case model target is $114.
03Is Sempra (SRE) stock overvalued in 2026?
SRE trades at 18.3x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Sempra (SRE) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for SRE in 2026 are: (1) Debt & Cash Flow — Sempra’s growth is funded by significant spending, resulting in deeply negative cash flow and high debt, necessitating reliance on capital markets. (2) Wildfire Exposure — California and Texas, where Sempra operates, are prone to wildfires; damage to infrastructure could exceed insurance coverage, potentially causing significant financial losses. (3) Project Development Risk — Energy infrastructure projects may not be completed on schedule or within budget, or may not operate at expected levels, delaying revenue recognition and increasing costs. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Sempra's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates SRE will report consensus revenue of $14.1B (+2.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.77 (+25.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $14.2B in revenue.
06When does Sempra (SRE) report its next earnings?
Sempra is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-07. Consensus expects EPS of $1.48 and revenue of $4.1B. Over recent quarters, SRE has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Sempra generate?
Sempra (SRE) had a free cash outflow of $3.3B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 24.4%. SRE returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.6% yield) and share repurchases ($58M TTM).