Surf Air Mobility Inc. (SRFM)
Valuation Overview•Is Surf Air Mobility Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
The market is pricing the stock in line with historical averages, assuming steady-state growth.
Fragile underlying quality score of 17/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Highly distressed profile flashing severe fundamental warning signs.
Wall Street is broadly bullish, projecting solid upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. However, capital return yields remain modest, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
Returns capital exclusively via buybacks — no active dividend
SRFM struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company is driving exceptional top-line expansion (73.9% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (-65.9%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $25.6M | -10.8% | +73.9% | +70.0% | — | |
| EBITDA | -$10.8M | — | -10.7% | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$20.3M | -47.6% | -14.1% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.97 | +8.8% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$15.0M | -6.0% | -37.1% | -51.7% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 2.3% | 1.1% | -11.2% | -17.2% |
| Operating Margin | -65.9% | -149.3% | -196.3% | -209.7% |
| Net Margin | -103.4% | -193.6% | -250.2% | -260.6% |
| FCF Margin | -64.3% | -81.5% | -117.7% | -118.1% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $-0.39 | $-0.28 | +28.2% | ||
| Q1'26 | $-0.30 | $-0.16 | +46.7% | ||
| Q4'25 | $-0.61 | $-0.64 | -4.9% | ||
| Q3'25 | $-1.09 | $-0.93 | +14.7% | ||
| Q2'25 | $-1.08 | $-1.31 | -21.3% | ||
| Q1'25 | $-1.19 | $0.59 | +149.6% | ||
| Q4'24 | $-1.05 | $-0.94 | +10.5% | ||
| Q3'24 | $-1.40 | $-1.96 | -40.0% |
Total return is -43.5% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -68.5%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -51.0% | -60.4% | — |
| 1Y | -43.5% | -68.5% | — |
| 3YCAGR | -62.4% | -82.7% | — |
| 5YCAGR | -44.4% | -57.6% | — |
| 10YCAGR | -25.4% | -39.5% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about SRFM (SRFM) valuation, health, and returns.
SRFM valuation is being assessed using available models.
SRFM has multiple valuation anchors: Wall Street Analyst Target: $1.30 (implying +11.1% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
SRFM displays poor financial health with a composite quality score of 17/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of -10.8 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of -361.8%.
SRFM returns capital via buybacks instead of dividends, carrying a 0.9% buyback yield and reducing outstanding shares by +61.9% in the last 12 months.
SRFM's current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved -10.8% 1Y revenue growth and +8.8% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +73.9%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 3 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 42% of recent quarters with a 2-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +11.1% change from current levels.
Investment risks for SRFM include: -88.3% 1-year max drawdown, high beta (4.02x market volatility), elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 4.02x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.