MODEL VERDICT
Stoneridge, Inc. (SRI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 35 analyst estimates | $3.22 | -63.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 30 industry peers | $10.95 | +22.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 31 industry peers | $9.69 | +8.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 37 industry peers | $26.24 | +194.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 37 industry peers | $22.15 | +148.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 31 industry peers | $10.97 | +23.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $8.47 | -5.1% | 100% | 66 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 63.86 | 13.77 | 13.32 | 164.50 | 87.15 |
| EV/EBIT | 96.93 | 36.30 | 10.52 | 363.83 | 150.64 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.41 | 13.93 | 7.63 | 35.28 | 10.12 |
| P/FFO | 18.58 | 16.56 | 8.63 | 32.31 | 9.93 |
| P/TBV | 3.04 | 2.92 | 1.00 | 4.23 | 1.13 |
| P/AFFO | 26.34 | 15.85 | 13.27 | 49.90 | 20.44 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.09 | 2.09 | 0.71 | 2.86 | 0.74 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.19 | 1.26 | 0.34 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates SRI's fair value at $8.47 vs the current price of $8.92, implying -5.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 66/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $8.47 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $6.85 (P10) to $12.74 (P90), with a median of $9.69.
SRI's current P/E of -14.9x compares to the industry median of 17.1x (25 peers in the group). This represents a -186.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 63.9x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
9 analysts cover SRI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 66/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SRI.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.