MODEL VERDICT
Strata Critical Medical, Inc. (SRTA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $5.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $4.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $4.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $4.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $4.04 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $13.46 | +165.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $3.39 | -33.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $2.90 | -42.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $13.56 | +166.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $9.74 | +91.8% | 100% | 59 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 6× | 8× | 10× (Current) | 12× | 14× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $3 | $4 | $5 | $6 | $7 |
| Conservative (7%) | $3 | $4 | $5 | $6 | $7 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $3 | $4 | $6 | $7 | $8 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $3 | $5 | $6 | $7 | $8 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 5.38 | 2.44 | 1.35 | 14.47 | 5.79 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.86 | 1.48 | 0.93 | 14.47 | 5.93 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.82 | 2.01 | 1.15 | 12.25 | 4.05 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 9 valuation metrics, the model estimates SRTA's fair value at $9.74 vs the current price of $5.08, implying +91.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 59/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $9.74 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $8.96 (P10) to $12.89 (P90), with a median of $10.89.
SRTA's current P/E of 10.2x compares to the industry median of 26.9x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -62.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
6 analysts cover SRTA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $7.25 (range: $7.25 — $7.25), implying +42.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 59/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SRTA.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.