MODEL VERDICT
Santech Holdings Limited (STEC) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $12.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $12.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $12.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $12.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Dec 12, 2025 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $0.90 | Pending | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 71 industry peers | $218.56 | +1634.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 105 industry peers | $679.62 | +5293.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 77 industry peers | $392.42 | +3014.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 107 industry peers | $693.19 | +5401.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 32 industry peers | $316.67 | +2413.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 75 industry peers | $242.41 | +1823.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 107 industry peers | $684.44 | +5332.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $489.38 | +3784.0% | 100% | 68 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× (Current) | 4× | 4× | 4× | 6× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (9%) | $36 | $36 | $36 | $36 | $54 |
| Conservative (15%) | $38 | $38 | $38 | $38 | $57 |
| Base Case (22.6%) | $41 | $41 | $41 | $41 | $61 |
| Bull Case (31%) | $43 | $43 | $43 | $43 | $65 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates STEC's fair value at $489.38 vs the current price of $12.60, implying +3784.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 68/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $489.38 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $334.56 (P10) to $620.96 (P90), with a median of $475.93.
STEC's current P/E of 1.5x compares to the industry median of 26.3x (71 peers in the group). This represents a -94.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for STEC.
The model confidence score is 68/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that STEC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (7.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3480.0% to approximately $17. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.