MODEL VERDICT
Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $229.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $226.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $200.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $194.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $190.57 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $279.36 | +21.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $150.03 | -34.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $218.96 | -4.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $83.97 | -63.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $185.77 | -19.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $73.73 | -67.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $246.50 | +7.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $121.79 | -46.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $142.11 | -38.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $222.58 | -2.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $83.96 | -63.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $168.17 | -26.7% | 100% | 81 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 25× | 27× | 29× (Current) | 31× | 33× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (10%) | $220 | $238 | $255 | $273 | $290 |
| Conservative (16%) | $233 | $251 | $270 | $288 | $307 |
| Base Case (25.3%) | $250 | $270 | $290 | $310 | $330 |
| Bull Case (34%) | $268 | $289 | $311 | $332 | $354 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.71 | 11.20 | 3.99 | 21.21 | 5.95 |
| EV/EBIT | 8.99 | 8.85 | 3.44 | 18.29 | 5.17 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.17 | 6.78 | 3.16 | 14.10 | 3.69 |
| P/FCF | 16.90 | 10.62 | 5.08 | 50.14 | 18.73 |
| P/FFO | 7.79 | 7.57 | 3.60 | 14.48 | 3.61 |
| P/TBV | 2.42 | 2.30 | 2.16 | 3.10 | 0.32 |
| P/AFFO | 32.10 | 14.99 | 5.02 | 120.31 | 44.31 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.14 | 2.03 | 1.80 | 2.82 | 0.34 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.93 | 0.82 | 0.70 | 1.38 | 0.24 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates STLD's fair value at $168.17 vs the current price of $229.27, implying -26.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $168.17 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $138.88 (P10) to $169.69 (P90), with a median of $153.97.
STLD's current P/E of 28.7x compares to the industry median of 27.4x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +4.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.7x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
27 analysts cover STLD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $188.40 (range: $165.00 — $207.00), implying -17.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (11), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: STLD trades at the 4550th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (10.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that STLD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (14.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2480.0% to approximately $172. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.