MODEL VERDICT
Scorpio Tankers Inc. (STNG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $82.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $78.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $75.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $73.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $74.51 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $72.44 | -12.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $97.46 | +17.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $93.48 | +12.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $141.96 | +71.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $93.27 | +12.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $170.35 | +105.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $166.21 | +100.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $68.60 | -17.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $51.05 | -38.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $93.40 | +12.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $141.96 | +71.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $160.90 | +93.9% | 100% | 89 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (13%) | $64 | $80 | $96 | $112 | $127 |
| Conservative (22%) | $68 | $86 | $103 | $120 | $137 |
| Base Case (33.3%) | $75 | $94 | $112 | $131 | $150 |
| Bull Case (45%) | $82 | $102 | $122 | $143 | $163 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 5.79 | 6.06 | 3.78 | 7.23 | 1.36 |
| EV/EBIT | 12.50 | 7.02 | 4.02 | 37.77 | 12.78 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.02 | 5.01 | 3.22 | 23.96 | 7.58 |
| P/FCF | 116.99 | 4.65 | 2.58 | 772.51 | 289.18 |
| P/FFO | 21.55 | 4.42 | 1.86 | 120.48 | 43.75 |
| P/TBV | 0.86 | 0.88 | 0.31 | 1.37 | 0.41 |
| P/AFFO | 3.98 | 4.02 | 3.32 | 4.56 | 0.53 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.86 | 0.88 | 0.31 | 1.36 | 0.41 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.02 | 2.19 | 0.69 | 2.78 | 0.77 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates STNG's fair value at $160.90 vs the current price of $82.99, implying +93.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $160.90 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $82.89 (P10) to $436.48 (P90), with a median of $169.67.
STNG's current P/E of 11.8x compares to the industry median of 13.3x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -11.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 5.8x over 5 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
31 analysts cover STNG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $85.33 (range: $80.00 — $93.00), implying +2.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (23), Hold (7), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: STNG trades at the 1670th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (5.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that STNG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (33.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5590.0% to approximately $37. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.