MODEL VERDICT
Strategic Education, Inc. (STRA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $78.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $73.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $83.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $80.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $81.19 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $116.39 | +48.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $135.67 | +73.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $105.05 | +34.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $119.52 | +52.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $129.96 | +66.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $131.98 | +68.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $116.25 | +48.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $134.86 | +72.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $134.52 | +71.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $104.13 | +33.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $119.30 | +52.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $124.99 | +59.8% | 100% | 93 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $56 | $67 | $78 | $89 | $100 |
| Conservative (5%) | $57 | $68 | $80 | $91 | $102 |
| Base Case (7.5%) | $58 | $70 | $82 | $93 | $105 |
| Bull Case (10%) | $60 | $72 | $84 | $96 | $108 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 28.70 | 25.37 | 14.80 | 43.30 | 10.41 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.78 | 16.78 | 10.14 | 26.02 | 5.86 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.60 | 11.22 | 7.35 | 14.84 | 3.15 |
| P/FCF | 19.21 | 21.48 | 10.64 | 27.60 | 6.18 |
| P/FFO | 14.02 | 14.36 | 8.80 | 18.88 | 3.94 |
| P/TBV | 12.93 | 11.83 | 7.67 | 21.08 | 4.52 |
| P/AFFO | 19.63 | 19.36 | 12.79 | 28.21 | 6.04 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.35 | 1.25 | 0.81 | 2.40 | 0.50 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.98 | 1.85 | 1.23 | 3.52 | 0.74 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates STRA's fair value at $124.99 vs the current price of $78.24, implying +59.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 93/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $124.99 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $112.69 (P10) to $137.88 (P90), with a median of $125.25.
STRA's current P/E of 14.4x compares to the industry median of 19.4x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -25.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 28.7x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
18 analysts cover STRA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $87.00 (range: $80.00 — $95.00), implying +11.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (7), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 93/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 10.2% is 2.9 percentage points above the 7-year average (7.3%), with a Z-score of +1.4σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$111. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that STRA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.4σ, meaning margins are 1.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (7.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4160.0% to approximately $111. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.