MODEL VERDICT
Stratus Properties Inc. (STRS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield 2 industry peers | $10.06 | -65.9% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 4 industry peers | $68.17 | +130.9% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $9.04 | -69.4% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $2.73 | -90.8% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $14.06 | -52.4% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $19.42 | -34.2% | 100% | 76 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 103× | 113× | 123× (Current) | 133× | 143× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $26 | $28 | $31 | $33 | $36 |
| Conservative (7%) | $26 | $29 | $31 | $34 | $37 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $27 | $30 | $32 | $35 | $38 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $28 | $31 | $34 | $36 | $39 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 40.34 | 27.91 | 4.28 | 105.67 | 40.38 |
| P/FFO | 13.09 | 6.97 | 1.69 | 29.67 | 12.32 |
| P/TBV | 1.22 | 1.33 | 0.57 | 1.91 | 0.58 |
| P/AFFO | 16.00 | 6.36 | 4.05 | 37.59 | 18.73 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.22 | 1.33 | 0.57 | 1.91 | 0.58 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 0.10 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.89 | 4.23 | 2.23 | 13.36 | 4.37 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 13 valuation metrics, the model estimates STRS's fair value at $19.42 vs the current price of $29.52, implying -34.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 76/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $19.42 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $9.54 (P10) to $23.76 (P90), with a median of $15.83.
STRS's current P/E of 123.0x compares to the industry median of 37.7x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +226.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
1 analysts cover STRS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 76/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (15), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for STRS.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.