MODEL VERDICT
NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc. (NXRT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.38 | $28.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $26.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $27.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $26.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $25.61 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 9 REIT peers | $28.56 | -1.2% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $17.39 | -39.9% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 6 industry peers | $51.42 | +77.8% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $27.10 | -6.3% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $30.43 | +5.2% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $67.13 | +132.1% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $31.48 | +8.9% | 100% | 81 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 227.41 | 24.32 | 11.17 | 987.00 | 425.91 |
| EV/EBIT | 43.81 | 31.14 | 15.30 | 80.40 | 27.88 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.14 | 14.46 | 11.37 | 24.22 | 4.65 |
| P/FCF | 16.74 | 14.89 | 9.14 | 29.47 | 7.21 |
| P/FFO | 10.98 | 11.08 | 6.48 | 19.65 | 4.56 |
| P/TBV | 2.70 | 2.60 | 1.81 | 4.56 | 0.88 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.69 | 2.58 | 1.81 | 4.54 | 0.87 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.13 | 4.22 | 3.04 | 9.85 | 2.34 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates NXRT's fair value at $31.48 vs the current price of $28.92, implying +8.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $31.48 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $27.16 (P10) to $39.36 (P90), with a median of $32.24.
NXRT's current P/E of -23.0x compares to the industry median of 29.5x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -177.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 227.4x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
10 analysts cover NXRT with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $27.00 (range: $27.00 — $27.00), implying -6.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (6), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for NXRT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.