MODEL VERDICT
Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $726.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $586.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $547.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $519.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $503.20 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $370.61 | -49.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $228.27 | -68.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $319.92 | -56.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $117.31 | -83.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $256.56 | -64.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $94.71 | -87.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 1 industry peers | $153.52 | -78.9% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $168.96 | -76.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $186.77 | -74.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $396.05 | -45.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $126.81 | -82.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $265.84 | -63.4% | 100% | 89 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 89× | 98× | 107× (Current) | 116× | 125× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $632 | $696 | $760 | $824 | $888 |
| Conservative (8%) | $651 | $717 | $782 | $848 | $914 |
| Base Case (12.3%) | $677 | $745 | $813 | $882 | $950 |
| Bull Case (17%) | $703 | $774 | $845 | $916 | $987 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.73 | 18.74 | 7.15 | 54.63 | 19.00 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.06 | 17.80 | 8.75 | 35.03 | 10.22 |
| EV/EBITDA | 34.13 | 16.76 | 7.01 | 132.87 | 44.62 |
| P/FCF | 27.41 | 24.54 | 9.24 | 73.06 | 21.41 |
| P/FFO | 17.61 | 14.04 | 5.61 | 34.74 | 12.33 |
| P/AFFO | 25.52 | 21.73 | 6.86 | 53.04 | 18.23 |
| P/B Ratio | 42.26 | 26.54 | 7.84 | 108.12 | 46.96 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.65 | 2.39 | 1.01 | 6.57 | 1.84 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates STX's fair value at $265.84 vs the current price of $726.93, implying -63.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $265.84 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $179.69 (P10) to $371.42 (P90), with a median of $267.67.
STX's current P/E of 107.4x compares to the industry median of 47.3x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +127.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 24.7x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
52 analysts cover STX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $623.71 (range: $380.00 — $1000.00), implying -14.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (27), Hold (20), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 21.6% is 11.7 percentage points above the 6-year average (9.9%), with a Z-score of +1.3σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$77. (2) Multiple compression: STX trades at the 8180th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (24.7×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that STX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.3σ, meaning margins are 1.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (9.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8940.0% to approximately $77. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.