MODEL VERDICT
Sun Communities, Inc. (SUI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $126.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $129.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $130.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $128.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $129.30 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 8 REIT peers | $210.51 | +66.3% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $132.68 | +4.8% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 5 industry peers | $177.55 | +40.3% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 8 industry peers | $157.43 | +24.4% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $334.46 | +164.3% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $102.99 | -18.6% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $163.66 | +29.3% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $127.71 | +0.9% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $232.72 | +83.9% | 100% | 77 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (21%) | $105 | $131 | $157 | $183 | $209 |
| Conservative (34%) | $116 | $145 | $174 | $203 | $232 |
| Base Case (51.9%) | $132 | $165 | $198 | $231 | $263 |
| Bull Case (70%) | $148 | $184 | $221 | $258 | $295 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 85.67 | 76.76 | 11.43 | 173.20 | 54.21 |
| EV/EBIT | 83.84 | 55.86 | 48.88 | 217.69 | 61.08 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.59 | 19.07 | 16.84 | 30.09 | 4.41 |
| P/FCF | 23.18 | 23.36 | 17.60 | 30.68 | 4.84 |
| P/FFO | 24.38 | 26.19 | 8.22 | 37.04 | 9.11 |
| P/TBV | 3.07 | 2.88 | 2.48 | 3.99 | 0.57 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.63 | 2.31 | 2.15 | 3.51 | 0.59 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.80 | 6.71 | 4.89 | 10.72 | 2.68 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates SUI's fair value at $232.72 vs the current price of $126.55, implying +83.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $232.72 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $200.54 (P10) to $285.88 (P90), with a median of $241.48.
SUI's current P/E of 11.7x compares to the industry median of 30.9x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -62.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 85.7x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
20 analysts cover SUI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $140.29 (range: $127.00 — $151.00), implying +10.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (5), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 66.9% is 52.3 percentage points above the 6-year average (14.6%), with a Z-score of +2.5σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$203. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SUI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +2.5σ, meaning margins are 2.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (14.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6040.0% to approximately $203. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.