MODEL VERDICT
Sunoco LP (SUN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $68.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $65.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $63.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $63.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $65.06 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $97.10 | +42.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $13.61 | -80.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $82.38 | +20.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $64.82 | -5.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $5.20 | -92.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 1 industry peers | $71.21 | +4.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $42.09 | -38.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $116.18 | +70.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $82.12 | +20.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $65.06 | -4.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $42.61 | -37.7% | 100% | 70 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 15× | 17× | 19× (Current) | 21× | 23× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $59 | $67 | $75 | $82 | $90 |
| Conservative (12%) | $61 | $69 | $78 | $86 | $94 |
| Base Case (17.9%) | $65 | $73 | $82 | $91 | $99 |
| Bull Case (24%) | $68 | $77 | $86 | $95 | $104 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.15 | 10.89 | 7.73 | 17.88 | 4.05 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.61 | 14.30 | 10.17 | 24.12 | 5.18 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.45 | 9.87 | 7.79 | 13.86 | 2.07 |
| P/FCF | 12.75 | 9.75 | 6.37 | 29.95 | 7.89 |
| P/FFO | 6.73 | 6.12 | 5.53 | 10.24 | 1.67 |
| P/AFFO | 10.83 | 9.47 | 7.68 | 18.02 | 3.53 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.28 | 3.81 | 0.90 | 5.21 | 1.54 |
| Div Yield | 0.11 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 0.15 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.21 | 0.22 | 0.14 | 0.29 | 0.05 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 25 valuation metrics, the model estimates SUN's fair value at $42.61 vs the current price of $68.35, implying -37.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $42.61 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $42.40 (P10) to $62.47 (P90), with a median of $52.28.
SUN's current P/E of 18.7x compares to the industry median of 22.5x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -17.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 12.1x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
24 analysts cover SUN with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $68.00 (range: $63.00 — $75.00), implying -0.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (10), Hold (11), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 1.8% is 1.3 percentage points above the 7-year average (3.2%), with a Z-score of +2.2σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$78. (2) Multiple compression: SUN trades at the 3640th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (12.1×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SUN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +2.2σ, meaning margins are 2.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (3.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1430.0% to approximately $78. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.