MODEL VERDICT
Latham Group, Inc. (SWIM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $5.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $6.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $6.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $6.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $5.75 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $2.84 | -52.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $6.52 | +9.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $2.05 | -65.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $3.83 | -35.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $4.02 | -32.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $4.57 | -23.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $10.79 | +81.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $8.80 | +48.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $2.04 | -65.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $3.79 | -36.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $5.92 | -0.3% | 100% | 72 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 56× | 61× | 66× (Current) | 71× | 76× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $5 | $6 | $6 | $7 | $7 |
| Conservative (5%) | $5 | $6 | $6 | $7 | $7 |
| Base Case (-7.1%) | $5 | $5 | $6 | $6 | $6 |
| Bull Case (-10%) | $5 | $5 | $5 | $6 | $6 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 35.83 | 25.28 | 16.51 | 65.71 | 26.24 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.97 | 13.45 | 9.27 | 23.70 | 6.75 |
| P/FCF | 92.52 | 24.36 | 3.57 | 317.78 | 150.55 |
| P/FFO | 15.34 | 11.70 | 7.74 | 30.22 | 10.10 |
| P/AFFO | 67.36 | 57.39 | 20.51 | 124.18 | 52.55 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.70 | 1.87 | 0.74 | 7.83 | 2.93 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.68 | 1.39 | 0.52 | 4.39 | 1.59 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 25 valuation metrics, the model estimates SWIM's fair value at $5.92 vs the current price of $5.94, implying -0.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 72/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $5.92 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $4.31 (P10) to $9.04 (P90), with a median of $5.95.
SWIM's current P/E of 66.0x compares to the industry median of 22.8x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +189.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
8 analysts cover SWIM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $8.25 (range: $7.00 — $9.50), implying +38.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (2), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 72/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (22), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SWIM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (3.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8450.0% to approximately $11. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.