MODEL VERDICT
SWK Holdings Corporation (SWKH)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 104 industry peers | $12.63 | -26.8% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 117 industry peers | $23.79 | +37.8% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 110 bank peers | $24.13 | +39.8% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Earnings Yield 105 industry peers | $12.65 | -26.7% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 98 analyst estimates | $20.48 | +18.7% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $16.58 | -3.9% | 100% | 77 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $13 | $15 | $18 | $20 | $22 |
| Conservative (5%) | $14 | $16 | $18 | $20 | $23 |
| Base Case (-10.2%) | $12 | $14 | $16 | $17 | $19 |
| Bull Case (-14%) | $11 | $13 | $15 | $17 | $19 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.35 | 11.64 | 5.14 | 28.50 | 7.57 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.32 | 12.20 | 4.69 | 37.71 | 11.24 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.95 | 12.24 | 4.43 | 14.05 | 4.09 |
| P/FCF | 9.87 | 6.83 | 5.01 | 22.78 | 6.20 |
| P/FFO | 9.40 | 9.38 | 4.27 | 15.80 | 3.64 |
| P/TBV | 0.63 | 0.64 | 0.46 | 0.80 | 0.11 |
| P/AFFO | 8.88 | 9.98 | 4.27 | 11.24 | 2.76 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.59 | 0.61 | 0.46 | 0.75 | 0.09 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.01 | 3.99 | 3.48 | 4.67 | 0.46 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates SWKH's fair value at $16.58 vs the current price of $17.26, implying -3.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $16.58 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $12.96 (P10) to $21.92 (P90), with a median of $17.20.
SWKH's current P/E of 16.0x compares to the industry median of 11.7x (104 peers in the group). This represents a +36.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.3x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
1 analysts cover SWKH with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: SWKH trades at the 6250th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (13.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SWKH.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.