MODEL VERDICT
Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. (SWX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $93.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $90.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $90.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $91.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $93.18 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $137.18 | +47.2% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $235.10 | +152.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $42.51 | -54.4% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $78.81 | -15.4% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 2 industry peers | $210.72 | +126.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $209.69 | +125.0% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 7 industry peers | $174.88 | +87.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $189.86 | +103.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $136.90 | +46.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $139.37 | +49.5% | 100% | 93 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $69 | $82 | $94 | $107 | $119 |
| Conservative (5%) | $70 | $83 | $96 | $109 | $122 |
| Base Case (8.0%) | $72 | $85 | $98 | $112 | $125 |
| Bull Case (11%) | $74 | $88 | $101 | $115 | $128 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 20.52 | 19.97 | 13.16 | 29.74 | 6.34 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.62 | 17.93 | 13.20 | 28.00 | 5.17 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.91 | 10.61 | 7.22 | 22.25 | 5.03 |
| P/FFO | 8.51 | 7.60 | 6.04 | 15.18 | 3.02 |
| P/TBV | 1.86 | 1.71 | 1.37 | 3.03 | 0.54 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.39 | 1.32 | 1.20 | 1.64 | 0.17 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.30 | 1.03 | 0.82 | 2.98 | 0.76 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates SWX's fair value at $139.37 vs the current price of $93.20, implying +49.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 93/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $139.37 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $127.85 (P10) to $157.75 (P90), with a median of $142.42.
SWX's current P/E of 15.3x compares to the industry median of 22.6x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -32.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 20.5x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
13 analysts cover SWX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $96.00 (range: $96.00 — $96.00), implying +3.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (3), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 93/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 22.7% is 20.4 percentage points above the 6-year average (2.3%), with a Z-score of +1.2σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$13. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SWX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (2.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8650.0% to approximately $13. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.