MODEL VERDICT
Stryker Corporation (SYK)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $294.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $327.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $343.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $341.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $339.15 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $234.19 | -20.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $234.59 | -20.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $205.64 | -30.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $214.21 | -27.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $273.86 | -7.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $212.47 | -27.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $193.21 | -34.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $223.72 | -24.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $261.16 | -11.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $205.21 | -30.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $213.94 | -27.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $278.29 | -5.6% | 100% | 89 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 29× | 32× | 35× (Current) | 38× | 41× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $258 | $285 | $311 | $338 | $365 |
| Conservative (10%) | $267 | $295 | $322 | $350 | $378 |
| Base Case (14.9%) | $280 | $309 | $338 | $367 | $396 |
| Bull Case (20%) | $293 | $323 | $353 | $383 | $414 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 44.58 | 41.84 | 36.30 | 58.34 | 7.93 |
| EV/EBIT | 36.03 | 34.81 | 28.35 | 46.13 | 6.70 |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.69 | 23.63 | 20.86 | 27.26 | 1.98 |
| P/FCF | 39.45 | 37.34 | 31.36 | 51.72 | 7.15 |
| P/FFO | 31.52 | 30.26 | 27.40 | 38.65 | 4.31 |
| P/AFFO | 38.62 | 36.52 | 31.76 | 48.43 | 5.77 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.39 | 6.23 | 5.62 | 7.12 | 0.53 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.71 | 5.61 | 5.07 | 6.49 | 0.51 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates SYK's fair value at $278.29 vs the current price of $294.73, implying -5.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $278.29 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $254.34 (P10) to $296.82 (P90), with a median of $275.58.
SYK's current P/E of 35.1x compares to the industry median of 24.5x (10 peers in the group). This represents a +43.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 44.6x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
50 analysts cover SYK with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $403.69 (range: $315.00 — $469.00), implying +37.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (35), Hold (14), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SYK's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (13.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2780.0% to approximately $377. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.