MODEL VERDICT
Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $42.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $42.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $44.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $44.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $45.05 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 3 analyst estimates | $83.30 | +97.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 3 industry peers | $76.67 | +81.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 3 industry peers | $78.25 | +85.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 3 industry peers | $105.06 | +149.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 3 industry peers | $93.80 | +122.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 3 industry peers | $74.88 | +77.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $70.35 | +67.0% | 100% | 61 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 20.83 | 12.36 | 10.03 | 48.56 | 18.57 |
| EV/EBIT | 30.26 | 12.58 | 9.66 | 91.34 | 34.81 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.95 | 10.65 | 6.87 | 33.72 | 10.47 |
| P/FCF | 9.76 | 9.45 | 8.56 | 13.29 | 1.62 |
| P/FFO | 10.55 | 8.15 | 5.63 | 21.93 | 6.65 |
| P/AFFO | 13.71 | 11.91 | 7.95 | 23.06 | 6.70 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.86 | 0.87 | 0.74 | 0.99 | 0.08 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.02 | 1.03 | 0.82 | 1.14 | 0.10 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates TAP's fair value at $70.35 vs the current price of $42.14, implying +67.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 61/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $70.35 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $70.36 (P10) to $87.19 (P90), with a median of $78.72.
TAP's current P/E of -3.9x compares to the industry median of 22.5x (2 peers in the group). This represents a -117.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 20.8x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
37 analysts cover TAP with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $48.30 (range: $40.00 — $58.00), implying +14.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (20), Sell (6), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 61/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (18), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for TAP.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.