MODEL VERDICT
TaskUs, Inc. (TASK)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $6.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $6.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $7.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $7.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $6.47 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $12.23 | +87.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $30.06 | +359.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $17.49 | +167.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $9.38 | +43.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $29.87 | +356.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $14.14 | +116.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $26.92 | +311.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $15.67 | +139.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $8.86 | +35.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $22.48 | +243.7% | 100% | 71 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 4× | 6× (Current) | 8× | 10× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (10%) | $5 | $5 | $7 | $10 | $12 |
| Conservative (16%) | $5 | $5 | $8 | $10 | $13 |
| Base Case (24.8%) | $5 | $5 | $8 | $11 | $14 |
| Bull Case (34%) | $6 | $6 | $9 | $12 | $15 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 28.81 | 30.55 | 10.82 | 43.33 | 13.70 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.89 | 15.56 | 14.91 | 20.20 | 2.89 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.52 | 11.65 | 9.26 | 13.49 | 1.82 |
| P/FCF | 14.61 | 15.26 | 11.16 | 16.78 | 2.44 |
| P/FFO | 15.81 | 16.20 | 11.81 | 19.05 | 3.21 |
| P/TBV | 32.61 | 28.47 | 4.82 | 68.71 | 28.85 |
| P/AFFO | 23.96 | 23.36 | 16.66 | 31.84 | 7.61 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.10 | 3.15 | 1.82 | 13.87 | 4.96 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.91 | 1.69 | 1.36 | 6.91 | 2.67 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates TASK's fair value at $22.48 vs the current price of $6.54, implying +243.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 71/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $22.48 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $18.72 (P10) to $23.20 (P90), with a median of $20.94.
TASK's current P/E of 6.0x compares to the industry median of 16.0x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -62.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 28.8x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
11 analysts cover TASK with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $13.50 (range: $12.00 — $15.00), implying +106.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (4), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 71/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 11.8% is 7.9 percentage points above the 4-year average (3.8%), with a Z-score of +1.3σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$10. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TASK's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.3σ, meaning margins are 1.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (3.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5610.0% to approximately $10. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.