MODEL VERDICT
TAT Technologies Ltd. (TATT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $36.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $35.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $40.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $42.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $44.71 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $46.91 | +28.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $42.44 | +16.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $47.54 | +29.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 3 industry peers | $10.54 | -71.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 3 industry peers | $35.35 | -3.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 3 industry peers | $15.71 | -57.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $89.65 | +145.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $84.04 | +129.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $48.47 | +32.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 3 industry peers | $10.32 | -71.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $57.32 | +56.6% | 100% | 67 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 23× | 25× | 27× (Current) | 29× | 31× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $33 | $36 | $38 | $41 | $44 |
| Conservative (7%) | $34 | $36 | $39 | $42 | $45 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $35 | $38 | $41 | $44 | $47 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $36 | $39 | $42 | $45 | $48 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 33.45 | 29.14 | 19.90 | 55.63 | 15.67 |
| EV/EBIT | 19.97 | 20.76 | 10.40 | 27.97 | 8.02 |
| EV/EBITDA | 40.85 | 21.90 | 5.20 | 126.66 | 43.57 |
| P/FCF | 835.28 | 136.46 | 9.92 | 2359.45 | 1321.49 |
| P/FFO | 25.42 | 22.03 | 8.79 | 52.48 | 16.43 |
| P/TBV | 1.31 | 0.75 | 0.51 | 3.14 | 1.09 |
| P/AFFO | 30.76 | 25.75 | 21.54 | 50.01 | 13.00 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.30 | 0.73 | 0.50 | 3.11 | 1.08 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.15 | 0.72 | 0.46 | 3.08 | 0.98 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates TATT's fair value at $57.32 vs the current price of $36.59, implying +56.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 67/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $57.32 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $37.67 (P10) to $103.49 (P90), with a median of $62.53.
TATT's current P/E of 26.7x compares to the industry median of 34.7x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -23.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 33.5x over 4 years. Signal: Discount.
5 analysts cover TATT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $53.00 (range: $47.00 — $59.00), implying +44.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 67/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 9.4% is 8.2 percentage points above the 4-year average (2.1%), with a Z-score of +1.3σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$10. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TATT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.3σ, meaning margins are 1.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (2.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7200.0% to approximately $10. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.