MODEL VERDICT
Taylor Devices, Inc. (TAYD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $74.87 | CURRENT | -22.5% |
| Mar 13, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $74.45 | Below threshold | -31.1% |
| Mar 6, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $82.49 | Below threshold | -33.0% |
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $87.74 | Below threshold | -37.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 58 analyst estimates | $74.73 | -0.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 53 industry peers | $62.75 | -16.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 50 industry peers | $86.75 | +15.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 54 industry peers | $39.24 | -47.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 54 industry peers | $62.14 | -17.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 54 industry peers | $41.02 | -45.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 39 industry peers | $153.22 | +104.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 59 industry peers | $47.44 | -36.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 59 industry peers | $46.43 | -38.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 50 industry peers | $86.75 | +15.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 54 industry peers | $39.24 | -47.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $65.45 | -12.6% | 100% | 81 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 22× | 24× | 26× (Current) | 28× | 30× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (11%) | $70 | $76 | $83 | $89 | $95 |
| Conservative (18%) | $74 | $81 | $88 | $94 | $101 |
| Base Case (27.0%) | $80 | $87 | $95 | $102 | $109 |
| Bull Case (36%) | $86 | $94 | $102 | $110 | $117 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.14 | 16.13 | 12.03 | 36.40 | 8.51 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.71 | 10.65 | 6.69 | 17.26 | 3.81 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.13 | 9.06 | 5.14 | 47.33 | 14.73 |
| P/FCF | 17.68 | 16.78 | 4.25 | 39.36 | 11.98 |
| P/FFO | 12.91 | 13.57 | 8.76 | 17.20 | 3.35 |
| P/TBV | 1.65 | 1.15 | 0.92 | 3.10 | 0.94 |
| P/AFFO | 22.93 | 17.86 | 11.66 | 58.32 | 16.21 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.64 | 1.15 | 0.92 | 3.09 | 0.93 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.15 | 1.69 | 1.09 | 4.14 | 1.12 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates TAYD's fair value at $65.45 vs the current price of $74.87, implying -12.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $65.45 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $50.35 (P10) to $66.55 (P90), with a median of $57.89.
TAYD's current P/E of 26.1x compares to the industry median of 30.2x (50 peers in the group). This represents a -13.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 19.1x over 7 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
1 analysts cover TAYD with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: TAYD trades at the 3200th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (19.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TAYD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5490.0% to approximately $34. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.