MODEL VERDICT
Transcontinental Realty Investors, Inc. (TCI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $36.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $36.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $40.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $40.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.43 | $40.02 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 6 REIT peers | $17.67 | -51.3% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / Book 6 industry peers | $222.77 | +514.4% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $20.74 | -42.8% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $23.98 | -33.9% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $21.38 | -41.0% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $40.47 | +11.6% | 100% | 73 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 45× | 49× | 53× (Current) | 57× | 61× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $32 | $35 | $37 | $40 | $43 |
| Conservative (7%) | $33 | $35 | $38 | $41 | $44 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $34 | $37 | $40 | $43 | $46 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $35 | $38 | $41 | $44 | $47 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 27.21 | 33.59 | 0.82 | 50.09 | 21.24 |
| EV/EBIT | 42.59 | 20.39 | 0.99 | 206.93 | 73.13 |
| EV/EBITDA | 74.40 | 79.01 | 5.31 | 151.98 | 51.88 |
| P/FFO | 8.72 | 11.04 | 0.79 | 14.56 | 6.53 |
| P/TBV | 0.60 | 0.58 | 0.30 | 0.98 | 0.26 |
| P/AFFO | 16.25 | 20.65 | 1.19 | 26.90 | 13.41 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.60 | 0.58 | 0.30 | 0.98 | 0.26 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.54 | 6.35 | 2.04 | 11.20 | 3.05 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates TCI's fair value at $40.47 vs the current price of $36.26, implying +11.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 73/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $40.47 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $28.40 (P10) to $44.71 (P90), with a median of $36.15.
TCI's current P/E of 53.3x compares to the industry median of 30.5x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +74.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 27.2x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
No analyst coverage data is available for TCI.
The model confidence score is 73/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: TCI trades at the 7780th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (27.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TCI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (1.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 9410.0% to approximately $2. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.