Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM)
Estimates & Forecasts•Proprietary EPS, revenue & margin forecasts — FY+1 to FY+4
Popular:
TCOM Price Targets Summary| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income | $1.4B | $9.9B | $17.1B | $29.4B | $37.6B | $53.0B | $60.9B |
| EPS (Diluted) | $2.14 | $14.78 | $24.78 | $41.58 | $51.78 | $71.15 | $79.73 |
| YoY Growth | — | +606.9% | +72.1% | +72.2% | +27.8% | +41.0% | +15.0% |
| Net Margin | 7.0% | 22.3% | 32.0% | 40.5% | 43.1% | 50.0% | 50.0% |
USD · TCOM · Proprietary Model| Metric | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $53.3B | $72.5B | $87.1B | $105.9B | $121.8B |
| Net Income | $17.1B | $29.4B | $37.6B | $53.0B | $60.9B |
| EPS (Diluted) | $24.78 | $41.58 | $51.78 | $71.15 | $79.73 |
| Free Cash Flow | $19.0B | $19.4B | $23.3B | $28.4B | $32.6B |
Treat point estimates cautiously; use wider scenario ranges and position sizing discipline.
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying TCOM stock.
Trip.com Group Limited's projected EPS for the next fiscal year is $41.58. This estimate blends our quantitative model with Wall Street analyst consensus and carries a confidence score of 41/100. The model factors in revenue trajectory, margin path, and share buyback trends to arrive at this figure.
Our scenario-based model produces three price targets for Trip.com Group Limited: Bear case $N/A, Base case $776, and Bull case $2891. These targets are derived by applying the median historical P/E ratio to forward EPS estimates under each growth scenario. They are not buy/sell recommendations.
Trip.com Group Limited's projected revenue growth for the next fiscal year is 21.4%, reaching approximately $72.5B in total revenue. Growth estimates are probability-weighted and blend analyst consensus with our CAGR extrapolation model. Outer years (FY+3, FY+4) fade toward industry median growth rates.
Accuracy depends on several measurable factors. Our model confidence score of 41/100 is computed from revenue predictability (25% weight), margin stability (20%), historical earnings beat rate (20%), data depth (15%), analyst coverage (10%), and model-consensus agreement (10%). Currently expanding margins support higher forecast reliability. No forecast model is perfect — always cross-reference with your own analysis.
Trip.com Group Limited's forward operating margin is estimated at 27.9% for the next fiscal year. The margin trend is currently "expanding". Our model tracks margin mean-reversion patterns and adjusts for sector-specific cost dynamics. Operating leverage is a key driver of EPS growth beyond top-line revenue expansion.
The v2 model uses a multi-step process: (1) Revenue is projected via blended CAGR with probability weighting, (2) Operating and net margins follow a mean-reversion path calibrated to sector norms, (3) EPS is derived from net income divided by projected diluted shares (accounting for buyback trends), (4) For FY+1 and FY+2, estimates are blended with analyst consensus based on coverage depth, (5) Price targets apply median historical P/E to forward EPS under bear/base/bull growth scenarios. All inputs are from public filings and third-party data providers.
The bear case ($N/A) assumes P25 revenue growth, worst-case margins, and multiple compression. Key risks include: unexpected margin contraction, revenue deceleration below model floor, regulatory headwinds, macro deterioration, or competitive disruption. A confidence score below 60 suggests higher estimate volatility. Always size positions according to the full scenario range, not just the base case.
Our model is above Wall Street consensus with a 49.1% gap. For FY+1, analyst estimates blend with our model at 43% analyst weight. By FY+3 and FY+4, estimates are purely model-driven as analyst coverage thins out at longer horizons.